Population 1: The Genius of the "And"
Over the past few years, we’ve seen a massive shift in the trading card landscape—especially in Pokémon. Grading has gone from a niche service used by serious collectors to a mainstream pillar of the hobby. PSA submissions are no longer reserved for vintage holos and grails. Today, everything gets graded.
And that’s where things start to get interesting.
We may be entering what is starting to be called the “junk slab era.”
That doesn’t mean grading itself is losing value. It means the signal is getting buried in noise.
With the rise of bulk submissions, modern cards, and speculative grading strategies, we’re seeing more slabs than ever before—many of which simply don’t carry long-term significance. Slabbing a card no longer automatically elevates it. In some cases, it just encases mediocrity in plastic.
And yet, in the middle of all this, a new trend has taken hold in the Pokémon community: the obsession with “low pop” cards.
The Low Pop Trap
At first glance, population reports seem like one of the most powerful tools available to collectors. A card with a Population 1 PSA 10 feels special. Exclusive. Rare.
But here’s the problem: low population does not equal high value.
In many cases, a card has a low population simply because no one has bothered to grade it. This is especially true for base set commons, modern bulk holos, or cards that historically haven’t attracted collector attention.
If one person decides to submit ten copies of an overlooked card—and one of them happens to hit a PSA 10—that doesn’t suddenly make it a premium asset.
It just makes it the best example… of something nobody was chasing.
This is where a lot of newer collectors get caught. They see “Pop 1” and assume scarcity equals desirability. But scarcity without demand is just obscurity.
Why Sample Size Matters
True rarity isn’t just about how many copies exist—it’s about how a card performs across a meaningful sample size.
A strong collectible profile typically includes:
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A healthy number of total graded copies
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A range of grades (PSA 6 through PSA 10)
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A clear separation between average condition and top-tier condition
When a card has hundreds or thousands of graded examples, and only a small percentage achieve Gem Mint 10, that’s when a PSA 10 actually means something.
It proves difficulty.
It proves selectivity.
It proves that perfection is hard to find—not just unattempted.
Compare that to a card with only a handful of submissions, where nearly all of them grade a 10. That’s not rarity—it’s a lack of data.
The Metric That Gets Overlooked: Gem Rate
One of the most under-discussed metrics in the hobby right now is Gem Rate—the percentage of graded copies that receive a PSA 10.
This number tells you how hard it is to achieve perfection for a given card.
And in my opinion, it’s one of the clearest indicators of long-term potential.
I tend to look for cards that combine:
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A solid total population (enough data to trust)
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A relatively low Gem Rate (true difficulty at the top)
This is what I call “The Genius of the And.”
Not low pop OR low gem rate.
Low pop AND low gem rate.
A Real Example: Skyridge Arcanine
A perfect example of this is a card I picked up back in May while vending at a show:
2003 Pokémon Skyridge #H2 Arcanine Holo PSA 10
At first glance, the population count of 136 PSA 10s might not turn heads for low-pop collectors. It’s not flashy. It’s not a Pop 5 or Pop 10.
But dig deeper.
The Gem Rate sits at just 16.63%.
That tells a completely different story.
This means that out of all graded copies of this card, only about one in six achieves a PSA 10. That’s a strong indicator of condition sensitivity—something Skyridge holos are well known for.
Now layer in the broader context:
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Skyridge is one of the most iconic and scarce sets in Pokémon history
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Sealed product continues to age, with fewer packs remaining unopened
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As packs get opened over time, most new submissions will not be perfect
What happens next is important.
As more Arcanine holos get graded and return as PSA 9s, 8s, and lower, the Gem Rate will likely decline even further.
Which makes existing PSA 10s even more significant.
A Contrast: Buzz Lightyear (Lorcana)
Now let’s compare that to a very different type of card:
2026 Disney Lorcana Wilds Unknown Buzz Lightyear, Jungle Wrangler #241 (Iconic)
This card currently has:
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51 PSA 10s
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4 PSA 9s
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1 PSA 8
On the surface, that looks incredibly rare. Only 51 PSA 10s—far fewer than the Arcanine.
But the Gem Rate is 91.1%.
That changes everything.
A Gem Rate this high suggests that nearly every copy submitted is hitting a PSA 10. In other words, the card is easy to grade at the highest level.
And considering grading costs around $80 per card, most people are only submitting copies they believe are flawless.
So what happens when more people submit?
If another 100 copies are graded, and the trend holds, you could be looking at roughly 140+ PSA 10s in short order.
The “low pop” disappears almost overnight.
Again, this isn’t about saying one card is better than the other—I actually own both. But the comparison highlights a key point:
Not all scarcity is created equal.
The Junk Slab Era
As grading becomes more accessible and more strategic, we’re going to continue seeing an influx of slabs that don’t carry lasting weight.
Cards graded for the sake of grading.
Low pop cards with no real demand.
Artificial scarcity driven by low submission volume rather than true difficulty.
This is the junk slab era.
And in this environment, collectors who rely on a single metric—especially population count—are going to get misled.
What Actually Matters
If you’re thinking long-term, it’s worth zooming out and asking better questions:
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How hard is this card to gem?
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How large is the grading sample size?
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Is there real demand behind the card?
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Does the set carry historical or collector significance?
Because at the end of the day, the most durable value tends to come from cards that check multiple boxes—not just one.
That’s the Genius of the And.
Low population and low Gem Rate.
Scarcity and demand.
Data and context.
That’s where things get interesting.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments.